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Look beyond borders – opportunities outside the US market

5 April 2023

Dr. Pascal Koeppel – Head Investment Management Vontobel SFA – and Guido Marveggio – Portfolio Manager and European stock selection specialist Vontobel SFA – offer you an inside perspective and update on current European markets. The discussion is moderated by Patrick Schurtenberger, Head Business Development Vontobel SFA.

  

A man in a blue shirt holds a movie clapperboard

Cut! That’s a wrap

Financial markets concluded 2023 on a positive note with an impressive year-end rally in equities, bonds and gold. At the start of this year, investors are reviewing the challenges they face in the year ahead. Read further what the implications are for the asset allocation in 2024 in our US Investors' Outlook.

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A woman holding a compass during a cold winter day

Staying ahead, reaching beyond

Central banks spent November emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy restrictive for long enough. Macroeconomic data that showed signs of a weakening US labor and housing market, combined with evidence of slowing inflation, had investors questioning how long “long enough” will actually be. The data indicated the US economy was on a trajectory towards a soft landing, supporting all asset classes in November.

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A crude awakening

September kicked off with a surprise and set the tone for the month’s market developments. The announcement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to extend voluntary cuts in oil production to the end of the year—longer than investors had expected—created more uncertainty surrounding the inflation normalization path.

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Three bowls of porridge

Market participants who expected August to be a quiet month for financial markets were thrown a curveball this time around. A rollercoaster of headlines from the US highlighted the stark contrasts found in the world’s largest economy: on the one hand, we saw a downgrade of its long-term debt rating amid expected fiscal deterioration and a growing government debt burden, as well as rating downgrades for several banks, amidst the challenges arising from the sharp increase in interest rates. On the other hand, data showed that the tight housing market fueled construction spending, the robust labor market created new jobs and strong consumption continued to promote spending.

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Investors Outlook July 2023: Time to pause - Teaser Image

Time to pause

The period through the end of June has unfolded like the standard playbook of a late economic cycle: lending standards and financial conditions have tightened. The US housing market started to reveal its first cracks and jitters in the banking system followed. Default rates are likely to rise next. After an eventful first half-year, we are now focused on what the next six months might have in store.

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